Work / Finance research
Gold Trader
Research into automated XAUUSD trading, run on paper. Its most useful result is the one that says no.
Live orders: locked
- Live trading is off by default in code, and the interface can never switch it on.
- The lock stays until at least 20 forward Grade-A trades show an edge.
The refusal to trade
Replays and backtests, not live results.
−$79,297
unfiltered, overlapping signals from nine strategy families
The firehose
Backtest−$334
the same signals, one position at a time
Sequential
Backtest110→0
entries allowed once a macro hard block was added, in a 30-day replay
Macro block
Replay+2.65R
Grade-A trades when macro was mixed, at a 71% win rate
Mixed macro
Replay−10.29R
Grade-A trades when macro was aligned
Aligned macro
Replay421
tests passing; one pre-existing failure, one skipped
Tests
SuiteWhat this page does not show
- Live performance: no real order has ever been placed.
- A proven edge: it is unproven until forward trades confirm it.
- Advice: nothing here is a recommendation to trade.